COP15, "the fifteenth Conference of the Parties under the United Nations' Climate Change Convention", has provided organisations with an opportunity to make the case for their particular bit of the transport industry. For example, the International Transport Forum (ITF) arrived at COP15 with some thoughts on transport and emissions greenhouse gas (GHG).
http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/Proceedings/COP15/index.html
One of the ITF's 'Key Messages' is that "Fuels for international air and maritime transport are not taxed and international conventions have so far been seen as an obstacle to making carbon taxes or trading part of the approach to mitigating GHG emissions from these modes."
When will someone grab hold of this issue and do something? The ITF at least gives us something to argue about when it says "Research indicates that emissions trading systems (or a fuel tax) are more cost effective than departure or ticket taxes so long as they are integrated with trading in other sectors."
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) arrived at COP15 claiming to be "the only global industry coming to Copenhagen with a strong track record and a commitment to cut our emissions in half by 2050", in the words of its director general and CEO, Giovanni Bisignani. Some might say that, as the most threatened transport sector, aviation really has to lead the way.
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2009-12-08-01.htm
IATA's manifesto is "to improve fuel efficiency by an average of 1.5 per cent per year to 2020; to stabilise carbon emissions from 2020 with carbon-neutral growth; and to a net reduction in carbon emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 compared to 2005". But, as another study shows, the air transport industry alone can't maintain its 'licence to fly'. We need joined-up thinking on transport and GHGs.
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which describes itself as "an independent body established under the Climate Change Act to advise the UK Government on setting carbon budgets", stirred things up at the beginning of the month with a sizeable report "Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050".
http://theccc.org.uk/reports/aviation-report
This document called on the government to "revisit" current plans for airport expansion, including Heathrow. It also came up with the notion that "demand growth between now and 2050 cannot exceed 60 per cent if the UK is to meet the Government's target that aviation emissions in 2050 must not exceed 2005 levels". A 60 per cent increase? The more extreme activists who went to shout at COP15 would probably prefer a 60 per cent reduction.
In fact, the CCC's "business as usual" scenario would see a 200 per cent increase in air passenger demand. To even peg growth to 60 per cent, it says, the UK will need to improve high speed rail links. That could result in a 10 per cent reduction in the demand for aviation in 2050. By then, another technology, video-conferencing, could replace a further 30 per cent of business trips.
Not for the first time, then, we see that the future of transport depends on complex interactions with other technologies. Reports like that from the CCC may begin to get this message across, even if no one is listening in Copenhagen.
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